18/3/2026

Commercial shipping in the Middle East is currently under extreme duress due to a combination of military activity, Iranian-enforced blockades, and the withdrawal of insurance coverage.  

Strait of Hormuz was closed on March 2, 2026, Iran declared the Strait closed. Major carriers (Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) have suspended all transits.

As of March 5, most P&I (Protection and Indemnity) clubs have cancelled war-risk coverage for the Persian Gulf which is halting vessels entering.

Red Sea & Suez Canal: Most east-west container services have reverted to the Cape of Good Hope route, adding 10–14 days to transit times. 

Regional airspace (Iran, Iraq, and parts of the UAE/Qatar) is heavily restricted. Major hubs like Dubai and Doha are operating at severely limited capacity.  

The maritime "danger zones" have expanded from specific corridors to the entire Northern Indian Ocean.

Zone A: The Persian Gulf & Strait of Hormuz. The most restricted area. Only a handful of outbound vessels have been recorded recently; inbound traffic is near zero.

Zone B: The Bab el-Mandeb & Red Sea. High-risk "asymmetric" warfare zone due to drone and missile threats.  

Zone C: The Gulf of Oman & Arabian Sea. Now a staging ground for naval escorts and a site of frequent "shadow war" incidents (seizures and boarding).

The Cape of Good Hope (South Africa) is currently the primary route for all trade between Asia and Europe, leading to massive congestion at ports like Salalah and Karachi.  

The diversion of ships away from the Middle East is creating a "clog" in major Asian maritime hubs. Singapore & Tanjung Pelepas: These ports are seeing a surge in "dwell times" (how long a container sits at the dock). Carriers are unloading Persian Gulf-bound cargo at these SE Asian hubs rather than sailing toward the conflict zone, leading to massive yard congestion.

Empty Container Shortages: Because ships are taking the long route around Africa, containers are not returning to China and Vietnam fast enough. This is starting to delay new exports.

Airfreight Overflow: Since 18% of global air cargo typically transits through Middle Eastern hubs like Dubai (now heavily restricted. Airlines are over capacity.

Route Hikes: Rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast jumped 10-15% in the first week of March alone. 

Bunker Surcharges: Even for routes that don't go near Iran, "Emergency Bunker Surcharges" are being applied across all Asian trades to compensate for the global spike in fuel

While New Zealand and Australia are geographically distant from the conflict, they are currently experiencing a significant "second-wave" logistics crisis. Because both nations rely heavily on a few specific "super-hubs" in Southeast Asia, the disruption is hitting the Southern Hemisphere through cost escalation and schedule chaos rather than direct military risk.  

 The projected situation looks for the ANZ region as of mid-March 2026:

The "Transit Hub" Bottleneck, Most cargo moving between Europe/the UK and Australasia typically transits through Middle Eastern hubs (Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi) or the Suez Canal.

Airlines like Emirates, Qatar, and Etihad have slashed capacity to Australia and New Zealand by approximately 18%. This has caused spot air-freight rates to jump by 35% since March 1st.  

Sea Route Diversion: Major lines (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM) have rerouted ANZ-bound vessels from Europe around the Cape of Good Hope. This adds a minimum of 14 days to arrival times.

Carriers have implemented several new fees that apply specifically to South Pacific routes already.

Emergency Bunker Surcharge (EBS): Due to the spike in global marine fuel prices, lines like Swire Shipping and Maersk have introduced new surcharges effective late March.

Even for direct routes from North Asia (China/Japan) to Australia that do not pass through the conflict zone, "Emergency Conflict Surcharges" of up to $1,000 per 40ft container are being applied to offset the global rise in operational and insurance cos

Expected also will be Port "Vessel Bunching", as ships take unpredictable alternative routes, they are arriving at Australian and New Zealand ports in "clumps" rather than on a steady schedule.

 

Currently it is difficult to predict what will be the long term outlook unless the Strait can be reopened quicker than expected.

 

Keeping you Informed!

 

BR International Logistics NZ Ltd

 

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